First, at present, there is no sign that A shares will start the second wave of market, and the conditions are not available.It is basically impossible to find out the sectors that have market appeal and can play a leading role. Without a new leading sector, the market will lose its leader. Without a leading sector, how to start the second wave of gains depends on general gains.In the past year or two, the theme of A-shares was foreign investment and RMB appreciation. This concept has been going on until now, including today. However, Tuesday's favorable policy proposed to implement monetary easing, which indicates that the RMB exchange rate is expected to depreciate or begin to depreciate, and the concept of A-shares has been speculated to the end. After all, after several years, few people believe it, and it can only be played by big players themselves. The participation of retail investors is not high, and the big index stocks are at historical highs.
There have been three shrinking volume piles. I posted a picture for you in the article the day before yesterday. You can have a look. Through the judgment of volume, it is concluded that 3494 points is a high point, because there is no volume to support the rise, which belongs to the nature of attracting more and ship pulled.The volume pile is shrinking, the volume and price deviate, and the market index deviates. The rise at this stage is ship pulled, and now the market fully meets these characteristics.Today's trend, in particular, seems to be to eat Tuesday's false yinxian. Even if it is eaten, it is meaningless. To attract more is to attract more. It's just a change of technique, and the shipment is not smooth. It's just another trip to ship pulled.
Of course, there are still many situations, which are enough to explain the current trend. It is a trend of attracting more people, and I will not list them one by one. My judgment has gone up and down these days, and I keep making mistakes. Maybe it's because I want this wave of market to work normally, so I will adjust it, and it will go up when it goes up, but I just push up the index and go up for the sake of going up. In addition, the trading volume can't be effectively enlarged. Without a new leading plate, I rely on a few big index stocks to control the market. This is ship pulled. Therefore, I am still bearish on tomorrow's A-share market.Third, there is no need to do size conversion for the current A-shares.A-shares have gone out of the upward trend today, but the heat of the market has not improved, and the wait-and-see mood is relatively strong. Then why should the main force continue to pull up the market index, whether to start the second wave of market, or to change the size, or to pull up and attract more? On these three questions, I said my own point of view.